Fire rescue, parks, libraries and bus routes could all face cuts if a statewide ballot measure passes in November, when Miami-Dade County stands to lose $385.8 million in its first year — with services Palmetto Bay and Cutler Bay residents rely on among those at risk.

Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava issued the warning at a July 16 budget press conference, saying the loss from Amendment 3 would amount to more than 10% of the county's general fund. By the second year, the hit would grow to nearly $697 million.

"Should the property tax reform pass, obviously we're going to have to make more severe cuts, and we are putting out as much information as we have now, and we'll be refining it so the public will know what will be cut should that pass," Levine Cava said, according to the Miami Times.

She raised the same warning Thursday on WLRN's South Florida Roundup.

Amendment would triple the homestead exemption

The ballot measure, formally titled "Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes," would raise Florida's homestead exemption from $50,000 to $150,000 in January 2027 and to $250,000 in January 2028. School district levies are excluded. The amendment needs 60% voter approval to pass.

The Florida Legislature placed it on the ballot after approving House Joint Resolution 1-F during a special session in early June. State economists estimate the change would cost Florida localities nearly $12 billion per year by 2031, as reported by the Washington Post.

Poll shows support falling short of threshold

A University of North Florida poll of 848 likely voters, conducted July 8 through July 17, found that when respondents were told about the $11.8 billion two-year budget shortfall, support for Amendment 3 dropped 16 percentage points to 45%. That's well below the 60% threshold. At least three lawsuits challenging the ballot language are pending, including a bipartisan suit arguing the title and summary are "politically loaded."

Palmetto Bay surveys residents, Cutler Bay faces bus cut

Palmetto Bay is already preparing for the possibility. The village launched a property tax survey in early July asking residents to rank priorities including parks, public safety, roads, neighborhood improvements and community programs. The survey was reopened July 19 for residents who missed the first round.

The village's notice cited "rising operating costs and the possibility of an increase in Florida's homestead exemption, which would lower property taxes and reduce revenues" as the reason it needs resident input.

In Cutler Bay, the proposed county budget would eliminate contract-operated Route 70, the bus line serving the area. The route is one of 12 slated for cuts even as transit overall receives a $66 million funding boost, bringing total county transit support to nearly $336 million.

District 11 Commissioner Roberto J. Gonzalez, who serves on the commission's Intergovernmental and Economic Impact committee created to review recurring costs and identify savings, wrote in a July 20 Miami Herald op-ed that "this November we will face a reform opportunity or a fiscal storm," adding that the time to trim spending is now regardless of the vote's outcome.

County budget grows 8% while holding tax rate flat

Levine Cava's proposed fiscal year 2026-27 budget totals $14.3 billion, an 8% increase over the prior year, while keeping the property tax rate flat. To balance it, the county identified more than $42 million in inefficiencies and $79 million in reductions, and eliminated more than 400 vacant positions from general fund departments. The county is also proposing to draw $96 million from its Transportation Infrastructure Improvement District fund to bridge transit funding gaps.

Levine Cava said the county remains open to increasing the transit fare and the gas tax, calling those decisions that "will be debated."

How to weigh in

The Miami-Dade Board of County Commissioners will hold budget hearings on Sept. 3 and Sept. 17. Palmetto Bay's property tax survey remains open at palmettobay-fl.gov.