South Florida faces a wetter and stormier winter than usual, driven by what meteorologists are calling a "Super El Niño."

National Weather Service Miami meteorologist Robert Molleda told WSVN that the seasonal outlook calls for "increased chances of above-normal rainfall, so more rainfall than we would typically see during an average winter." He added there is "an increased chance of severe weather events, including tornadoes, across the state of Florida."

For Palmetto Bay and Cutler Bay residents, Molleda's outlook points to above-normal rainfall probabilities that could stretch through winter.

Possibly the strongest on record

El Niño is a weather pattern in which sea surface temperatures in a patch of the Pacific Ocean rise above normal. This year's version has already broken records before reaching its typical peak in December or later, according to the Miami Herald.

Molleda said the current El Niño event "has the possibility of being the strongest on record since 1950, when we started to measure the water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and categorize these events as El Niño or La Niña," WSVN reported.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center identified El Niño as the dominant teleconnection in its November 2026 outlook. The agency's initial forecast showed above-normal precipitation probabilities across the Southeast, though an Oct. 31 update noted those probabilities had weakened for the region.

More rain, more tornadoes

Emily Powell, Florida's state climatologist, told the Miami Herald that strong El Niño events historically bring roughly twice as much winter precipitation compared to La Niña years. She estimated that translates to about 40% more rain than an average winter.

Powell said the timing of the heaviest rain is unclear, but she predicted stretches of drier weather broken up by very heavy rainstorms. Those downpours could lead to flooded streets across South Florida, she said.

The tornado risk may worry residents more. Strong and violent tornadoes are rare in Florida, and particularly rare in Central and South Florida outside of those spawned by hurricanes. But research from the NWS Melbourne office has found a link between strong El Niño patterns and more severe tornado outbreaks during Florida's dry season, which runs from November through April.

El Niño shifts that risk south.

Molleda urged residents to take the threat seriously. "We want to make sure that people understand that tornadoes can be very damaging," he said, according to WSVN.

Residents can monitor severe weather alerts from NWS Miami on X at @NWSMiami or through a NOAA weather radio.