The first week or two of August are expected to be unusually quiet across the Atlantic basin, giving Palmetto Bay and Cutler Bay residents a window to shore up hurricane plans before peak season arrives.

WPLG Local 10 Hurricane Specialist Michael Lowry laid out the case in his analysis published Wednesday, July 29: three atmospheric forces are working together to suppress storm development. Tropical Atlantic water temperatures are at their coolest in four years. Wind shear over the western Atlantic has been the highest on record since at least 1979 over the past two weeks, surpassing even the strong El Niño year of 2015. And sinking air driven by a rare global atmospheric pattern is smothering disturbances before they can organize.

"That knockout one-two combo of high wind shear and sinking air is firmly in place and doesn't look to be retreating anytime soon," Lowry wrote.

Forecast models show little to no tropical development through at least early August. The 2026 season is on pace as the slowest start since 2009, with only two weak, short-lived named storms so far: Arthur in June and Bertha in July.

Colorado State University revised its seasonal forecast on Wednesday, July 8, to just nine named storms, four hurricanes, and one major hurricane. That would be the fewest Atlantic storms since 2014. NOAA is scheduled to update its own outlook on Thursday, August 6.

Not an all-clear

Lowry stopped short of declaring August a total shutout. The subtropics could still open periodic development windows, especially deeper into the month.

AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva echoed that caution in a Wednesday, July 29, Newsweek report, saying forecasters will monitor the southwestern Atlantic and eastern Gulf from August 5 through August 15, where stalled fronts and lower wind shear could make conditions slightly more favorable for development. He called it "just an area to monitor," not a guaranteed threat.

The climatological peak of hurricane season falls on Thursday, September 10, with the most active stretch running mid-August through mid-October.

Time to check your plan

With conditions calm, the window is ideal for residents to review supply kits, confirm evacuation zones, and update contact plans. Palmetto Bay maintains a hurricane preparedness page with local resources, and Miami-Dade County's ReadyMDC app provides emergency alerts for iPhone and Android. Residents can also sign up for free notifications by calling 311.