Rep. María Elvira Salazar's reelection race just got harder. Two national forecasters downgraded Florida's 27th Congressional District from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican" on Wednesday, Sept. 23.

Fox News Power Rankings and Sabato's Crystal Ball, housed at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, both made the shift the same day. The district covers Palmetto Bay, Cutler Bay, Coral Gables, Pinecrest, Key Biscayne, South Miami, West Miami and part of Miami south of the Dolphin Expressway.

Sabato's Crystal Ball noted that Salazar drew national attention for pushing back on the Trump administration's immigration enforcement and called Democratic challenger Eliott Rodriguez a credible challenger, Florida Politics reported. The forecaster added that the district backed Trump by 14.5 points but was much more competitive as recently as 2020.

Salazar, a Republican seeking a fourth term, won reelection in 2024 by roughly 21 points. But the political ground has shifted.

An internal poll commissioned by Rodriguez's campaign and conducted by Bendixen & Amandi International in late August found both candidates tied at 45% among 600 likely voters. After respondents heard descriptions of each candidate's record, Rodriguez led 47% to 40%. Internal campaign polls routinely favor the candidate releasing them, and no independent public survey of the district has been published.

The poll also found Trump 10 points underwater in the district, with 54% disapproval. Pollster Fernand Amandi called it "a district Salazar carried by more than 20 points less than two years ago" that "is now a pure toss-up," according to Florida Politics.

Immigration has become the race's central fault line. Salazar released a bilingual ad around Sept. 17 filmed outside the White House, telling Trump that some of his immigration enforcement had "gone too far" and that Hispanic voters who helped elect him felt betrayed. The district's population is roughly 74% Hispanic.

Rodriguez, 70, a former CBS News Miami anchor with more than 40 years in South Florida journalism, responded sharply. "Make no mistake. These are crocodile tears from someone worried about losing an election," he told WSVN 7News on Sept. 17.

The immigration ad also drew criticism from the right. Conservative commentators including Fox News host Tomi Lahren called Salazar "not a Republican," and Fox host Mark Levin called her a "fool," Florida Politics reported.

Salazar pivoted Wednesday, Sept. 23, with a second general election ad touting the TAKE IT DOWN Act, a bipartisan law she co-introduced with Pennsylvania Democratic Rep. Madeleine Dean. President Trump signed the measure May 19, 2025. It targets nonconsensual intimate images, including AI-generated deepfakes.

The Miami Herald Editorial Board endorsed Rodriguez on Friday, Sept. 25. Salazar declined to meet with the board. She has also declined three televised debate invitations that Rodriguez accepted and has not debated an opponent since facing Democrat Donna Shalala in 2020.

Salazar holds a significant fundraising edge, with $2 million banked through the end of July compared with Rodriguez's $661,000 raised since entering the race in March. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee lists the seat among six Florida races it is targeting.

Election Day is Nov. 3.